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Subscription Break-Even Calculator

October 2026 12 min read

Calculate months to recover CAC from monthly contribution. Free, instant, no sign-up.

Months to payback

Enter CAC, ARPU and variable — get payback months.

Free foreverInstant resultsNo sign-up
Monthly churn rate healthy subscription stores stay under
5%
Source: Subscription benchmarks
Minimum LTV:CAC ratio for sustainable subscription growth
3:1
Source: Venture benchmarks
Payback ceiling most subscription CFOs enforce on CAC
12 mo
Source: Finance practice
Gross margin strong subscription boxes defend per shipment
70%+
Source: Seller benchmarks

Interactive Calculator

Enter your numbers — every result below updates instantly. No sign-up, free forever.

Inputs

CAC ($)
ARPU / mo ($)
Variable / mo ($)

Results

Monthly contribution$17.00
Payback5.3 months

Visual Cost & Profit Breakdown

See exactly where every dollar of your selling price goes — costs, fees, and the profit you keep.

Bars are proportional to the headline figure — cost segments vs profit.

E-commerce Statistics That Shape Smart Pricing

Benchmarks from widely-cited industry research. Use them to sanity-check your margins, fees, and conversion assumptions.

Monthly churn rate healthy subscription stores stay under
5%
Source: Subscription benchmarks
Minimum LTV:CAC ratio for sustainable subscription growth
3:1
Source: Venture benchmarks
Payback ceiling most subscription CFOs enforce on CAC
12 mo
Source: Finance practice
Gross margin strong subscription boxes defend per shipment
70%+
Source: Seller benchmarks
Revenue from subscribers vs one-time buyers at maturity
30%
Source: Category studies
ARR multiple premium subscription brands command
8–12×
Source: Market data

Pricing Plans Compared: Which Strategy Fits Your Store?

Three proven pricing plans for online sellers. Match the plan to your stage, then plug its margin target into the calculator above.

Starter Plan — Monthly Box

Best for: new subscription offers

  • Price rule: Single-tier monthly with 3-month prepay option
  • Margin target: 25–30% net margin
  • Fees: Flat COGS plus ship per box
Most popular

Growth Plan — Tiered

Best for: scaling subscriber bases

  • Price rule: Good/better/best tiers with annual prepay discount
  • Margin target: 35–45% net margin
  • Fees: Blended COGS plus churn-adjusted LTV targets

Scale Plan — Membership

Best for: brands and communities

  • Price rule: Membership with perks, pauses and win-back flows
  • Margin target: 45%+ blended margin
  • Fees: Portfolio LTV:CAC above 4 with 12-mo payback

Formulas & How to Use This Calculator

Core formula

Payback = CAC ÷ (ARPU − Variable)

Supporting formula

Over 12 months strains cash

How to use — step by step

  1. Enter your cac ($) and arpu / mo ($) — use last-90-day carrier or supplier figures, not quotes.
  2. Add the remaining cost lines honestly, including the fixed payment slice and a 3–5% returns reserve.
  3. Set monthly volume to unlock break-even and monthly totals.
  4. Read the headline result, then check the proportional breakdown bars for the biggest cost slice.
  5. Compare the Growth-plan target against your margin and adjust packaging, zones or threshold.
  6. Copy or print the breakdown for your pricing sheet and re-check monthly.

Worked Examples

Real numbers, fully worked — copy the pattern for your own products.

Example 1 — $90 ÷ ($25−$8)

Inputs

5.3 months payback

Math

Inside a year — fundable

Result

5.3 months

Example 2 — $200 CAC same contrib

Inputs

11.8 months — edge of comfort

Math

Cut CAC or lift ARPU

Result

Cash timing rules

Example 3 — Channel comparison

Inputs

Same costs on two channels with a 5–12% fee gap

Math

Fee gap on identical price flows straight to profit — model each channel separately

Result

List at the highest channel-safe price or split fulfillment

Advanced Education: Master E-commerce Pricing

Beyond the basics — the concepts professionals use to price for profit across channels, seasons, and competitors.

Churn compounds harder than growth

At 5% monthly churn the average subscriber lasts 20 months; at 10% only 10. Halving churn from 10% to 5% doubles lifetime value without adding a single customer — equivalent to doubling acquisition while acquisition costs keep rising. Professionals attack involuntary churn (failed payments, dunning) first because it converts without persuasion.

LTV:CAC above 3, payback under 12

Lifetime value equals ARPU times gross margin divided by churn rate; CAC equals sales and marketing divided by new subscribers. Below 3:1 LTV:CAC the business burns cash to grow; above 5:1 it under-invests. Pair the ratio with payback months (CAC divided by monthly contribution) — anything past 12 months strains cash no matter how good the ratio looks.

Boxes live or die on per-shipment margin

Subscription box profit equals price minus COGS minus outbound shipping minus packaging and inserts, times active subscribers, minus fixed curation and support. Shipping is the silent killer: a $39.99 box with $14 COGS, $7 ship and $2.50 pack keeps $16.49 (41%) — raise ship to $10 and margin falls to 34%. Renegotiate ship before product.

Prepay and annual plans fund growth

Annual prepay at a 15–20% discount converts monthly cash into a lump that funds acquisition: 100 annuals at $400 bring $40,000 forward versus $3,900 monthly drip. The discount costs less than the CAC the cash replaces. Price annuals from box-pricing math (cost divided by one-minus-margin) then discount, never the reverse.

Forecast with cohorts, not averages

Blended churn hides truth: month-1 churn of 15% settling to 3% by month 6 means new cohorts behave nothing like mature ones. Forecast revenue as starting MRR plus new-cohort ramps minus cohort-decay curves. The revenue-forecast calculator compounds current MRR at measured net growth; validate quarterly against actual cohort retention.

Platform Playbooks: Amazon, Shopify, Etsy & eBay

Fee structures differ by channel — here is how to adapt one base price per marketplace without losing margin.

Amazon

Subscribe & Save takes 5–15% discounts plus FBA per-shipment economics. Model the discount tiers against retention lift — 15% off for 5+ subscriptions only pays when cohort length covers the haircut.

Shopify

Native subscriptions plus apps (Recharge, Loop) with dunning and pause flows. Failed-payment recovery plus skip-a-month options cut involuntary churn 2–4 points — the cheapest LTV lever available.

Etsy

Pattern and off-Etsy subscriber lists for consumables (coffee, refills, craft kits). Small bases mean every churned subscriber visibly moves MRR — track retention per 100-sub cohort, not blended.

eBay

Scheduled repeat deliveries for consumables with feedback-driven retention. Ratings on subscription-like repeat orders compound — protect on-time and fill-rate metrics like churn drivers.

Glossary: Pricing Terms Explained

MRR
Monthly recurring revenue: active subscribers times average revenue per subscriber.
ARR
Annualized run-rate: MRR times 12 — a snapshot, not booked revenue.
Churn
Share of subscribers lost per period: lost divided by starting base.
LTV
Lifetime value: ARPU times gross margin divided by churn rate.
CAC
Customer acquisition cost: sales and marketing divided by new subscribers.
LTV:CAC
Unit-economics ratio; above 3 sustainable, above 5 possibly under-spending.
Dunning
Failed-payment retry plus email sequence recovering involuntary churn.
Cohort
Subscribers acquired together, tracked as one retention curve over time.

Common Pricing Mistakes & Pro Tips

Mistakes that kill margin

  • Pricing boxes on product cost while $7–10 shipping eats the margin.
  • No dunning — 8–12% of renewals fail and never come back.
  • Discounting annuals from gut instead of margin math, then losing on every prepay.
  • Blended churn hiding month-1 bleeding behind mature-cohort stability.
  • Growing past LTV:CAC of 2 with paid ads — scaling losses, not growth.
  • No pause/skip option — rigid plans convert pauses into cancellations.

Pro tips to grow profit

  • Recover failed renewals with code-timed retries plus 3-email dunning.
  • Offer skip-a-month before cancel — pauses retain 3× better.
  • Price annuals from margin math, then discount 15–20% for cash up front.
  • Track cohorts separately; fix month-1 onboarding first.
  • Hold LTV:CAC above 3 with payback under 12 months.
  • Renegotiate box shipping yearly — it is the biggest margin lever.

Who Should Use This Calculator?

  • ▸ New sellers pricing a first subscription box with margin intact
  • ▸ Shopify stores adding tiers and annual prepay from LTV math
  • ▸ Coffee and consumable brands modeling churn vs CAC payback
  • ▸ Beauty boxes balancing curation cost against ship cost
  • ▸ Pet and baby verticals forecasting cohort revenue realistically
  • ▸ Operators cutting involuntary churn with dunning flows
  • ▸ Membership sellers setting prices from unit economics
  • ▸ Agencies producing client subscription plans with copy-ready breakdowns

Related E-commerce Calculators

Keep optimizing — every tool below links directly into this pricing workflow.

Frequently Asked Questions (15)

Long-tail answers: each question targets a real Google search about subscription break-even calculator — click to expand.

What is the subscription break-even and how does it work?
The subscription break-even computes your subscription economics from subscriber, price and cost inputs. Enter your numbers once and every result updates instantly — MRR, profit, retention and growth. It uses Payback = CAC ÷ (ARPU − Variable) so the number you see reflects recurring reality, not one-time math.
How do I calculate subscription break-even?
To calculate subscription break-even, enter your subscriber counts, prices, per-subscriber costs, churn and acquisition spend where they apply. The calculator applies Payback = CAC ÷ (ARPU − Variable) and annualizes where relevant. Use measured cohort retention — not blended guesses — and re-run whenever pricing or churn shifts.
What is a good result for subscription break-even?
A healthy subscription break-even shows monthly churn under 5%, LTV:CAC above 3 with payback inside 12 months, and per-box margins above 40%. Early-stage boxes near 10% churn are normal while onboarding is fixed — fatal only when unmodeled and unaddressed.
What inputs does the subscription break-even need?
You need active subscribers, ARPU or box price, per-subscriber COGS and shipping, churn rate, and marketing spend for CAC lines. Defaults mirror typical subscription break-even economics so first-time users get a sane answer in seconds, then refine with their own cohort data.
How accurate is this subscription break-even?
Math is exact for the inputs you give; accuracy depends on honest inputs. Pull cohort retention (not blended churn), true per-box ship invoices, and fully-loaded CAC including creative and trials. Re-check monthly for growth-stage offers, quarterly once stable.
Should beginners use the subscription break-even?
Yes — beginners benefit most, because first-time box sellers routinely price on product cost while $7–10 shipping erases margin. Run the calculator before launch: if per-box margin is under 30% at a competitive price, renegotiate ship, rebalance curation, or raise price. Sixty seconds prevents a subscriber-scale loss.
How does churn change lifetime value?
LTV equals ARPU times margin divided by churn — halving churn from 10% to 5% doubles LTV with zero new customers. The calculator shows the curve live: cut involuntary churn (dunning, pauses) first since it converts without persuasion or discounts.
What LTV:CAC should I target?
Above 3 to grow sustainably with payback inside 12 months; above 5 usually means under-spending on proven acquisition. Below 2 the business scales losses — fix onboarding and pricing before raising budgets.
How do failed renewals affect subscription break-even?
8–12% of card-on-file renewals fail; code-timed retries plus dunning recover 20–40% within two weeks. Each recovered subscriber at 70%+ margin dwarfs retry cost — model fails, recovery and margin to size the dunning investment.
Monthly or annual prepay — which wins?
Annuals at 15–20% discount trade margin for cash up front that funds acquisition without debt. Compare discounted annual LTV against monthly LTV times expected months — annuals usually win when month-1 churn exceeds 10%.
Can I model tiers with this?
Yes — run each tier separately with its own ARPU, COGS and churn, then blend by mix. Good/better/best tiers segment willingness to pay; the calculator shows which tier carries the growth so discounts target precisely.
How often should I re-run the subscription break-even?
Monthly while growing, quarterly once stable, and immediately when churn moves 1+ point, pricing changes, or acquisition mix shifts. Store a dated snapshot each run with the copy button so cohort changes stay visible.
Does this handle pauses and skips?
Yes — model pauses as retained subscribers with zero that-month revenue rather than churned losses. Skip-a-month options retain ~3× better than cancellations; the retention math should credit every saved subscriber.
What is the biggest mistake with subscription break-even?
Pricing boxes on product cost while shipping erases margin, then scaling ads past LTV:CAC of 2. The second mistake is zero dunning — letting 1 in 10 renewals fail permanently.
How do I forecast subscriber revenue?
Start from current MRR, add new-cohort ramps, subtract cohort-decay curves — never straight-line averages. The forecast calculator compounds net growth monthly; validate quarterly against actual cohort retention and reset assumptions.

Resources & Authoritative References

Further reading

Authoritative sources

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Last updated: October 2026 · Free forever · No sign-up · Part of E-commerce Calculators at Atlascalcs.com