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Subscription LTV Calculator

October 2026 12 min read

Calculate subscription lifetime value from ARPU, margin and churn. Free, instant, no sign-up.

Value per subscriber

Enter ARPU, margin and churn — get LTV.

Free foreverInstant resultsNo sign-up
Monthly churn rate healthy subscription stores stay under
5%
Source: Subscription benchmarks
Minimum LTV:CAC ratio for sustainable subscription growth
3:1
Source: Venture benchmarks
Payback ceiling most subscription CFOs enforce on CAC
12 mo
Source: Finance practice
Gross margin strong subscription boxes defend per shipment
70%+
Source: Seller benchmarks

Interactive Calculator

Enter your numbers — every result below updates instantly. No sign-up, free forever.

Inputs

ARPU / mo ($)
Gross margin (%)
Monthly churn (%)

Results

Lifetime value$350.00

Visual Cost & Profit Breakdown

See exactly where every dollar of your selling price goes — costs, fees, and the profit you keep.

Bars are proportional to the headline figure — cost segments vs profit.

E-commerce Statistics That Shape Smart Pricing

Benchmarks from widely-cited industry research. Use them to sanity-check your margins, fees, and conversion assumptions.

Monthly churn rate healthy subscription stores stay under
5%
Source: Subscription benchmarks
Minimum LTV:CAC ratio for sustainable subscription growth
3:1
Source: Venture benchmarks
Payback ceiling most subscription CFOs enforce on CAC
12 mo
Source: Finance practice
Gross margin strong subscription boxes defend per shipment
70%+
Source: Seller benchmarks
Revenue from subscribers vs one-time buyers at maturity
30%
Source: Category studies
ARR multiple premium subscription brands command
8–12×
Source: Market data

Pricing Plans Compared: Which Strategy Fits Your Store?

Three proven pricing plans for online sellers. Match the plan to your stage, then plug its margin target into the calculator above.

Starter Plan — Monthly Box

Best for: new subscription offers

  • Price rule: Single-tier monthly with 3-month prepay option
  • Margin target: 25–30% net margin
  • Fees: Flat COGS plus ship per box
Most popular

Growth Plan — Tiered

Best for: scaling subscriber bases

  • Price rule: Good/better/best tiers with annual prepay discount
  • Margin target: 35–45% net margin
  • Fees: Blended COGS plus churn-adjusted LTV targets

Scale Plan — Membership

Best for: brands and communities

  • Price rule: Membership with perks, pauses and win-back flows
  • Margin target: 45%+ blended margin
  • Fees: Portfolio LTV:CAC above 4 with 12-mo payback

Formulas & How to Use This Calculator

Core formula

LTV = ARPU × Margin% ÷ Churn%

Supporting formula

Halve churn, double LTV

How to use — step by step

  1. Enter your arpu / mo ($) and gross margin (%) — use last-90-day carrier or supplier figures, not quotes.
  2. Add the remaining cost lines honestly, including the fixed payment slice and a 3–5% returns reserve.
  3. Set monthly volume to unlock break-even and monthly totals.
  4. Read the headline result, then check the proportional breakdown bars for the biggest cost slice.
  5. Compare the Growth-plan target against your margin and adjust packaging, zones or threshold.
  6. Copy or print the breakdown for your pricing sheet and re-check monthly.

Worked Examples

Real numbers, fully worked — copy the pattern for your own products.

Example 1 — $25 × 70% ÷ 5%

Inputs

$350 LTV

Math

Funds $100 CAC at 3.5×

Result

$350 per sub

Example 2 — churn 10%

Inputs

$175 LTV — half the business

Math

Churn is the lever

Result

Fix churn before ads

Example 3 — Channel comparison

Inputs

Same costs on two channels with a 5–12% fee gap

Math

Fee gap on identical price flows straight to profit — model each channel separately

Result

List at the highest channel-safe price or split fulfillment

Advanced Education: Master E-commerce Pricing

Beyond the basics — the concepts professionals use to price for profit across channels, seasons, and competitors.

Churn compounds harder than growth

At 5% monthly churn the average subscriber lasts 20 months; at 10% only 10. Halving churn from 10% to 5% doubles lifetime value without adding a single customer — equivalent to doubling acquisition while acquisition costs keep rising. Professionals attack involuntary churn (failed payments, dunning) first because it converts without persuasion.

LTV:CAC above 3, payback under 12

Lifetime value equals ARPU times gross margin divided by churn rate; CAC equals sales and marketing divided by new subscribers. Below 3:1 LTV:CAC the business burns cash to grow; above 5:1 it under-invests. Pair the ratio with payback months (CAC divided by monthly contribution) — anything past 12 months strains cash no matter how good the ratio looks.

Boxes live or die on per-shipment margin

Subscription box profit equals price minus COGS minus outbound shipping minus packaging and inserts, times active subscribers, minus fixed curation and support. Shipping is the silent killer: a $39.99 box with $14 COGS, $7 ship and $2.50 pack keeps $16.49 (41%) — raise ship to $10 and margin falls to 34%. Renegotiate ship before product.

Prepay and annual plans fund growth

Annual prepay at a 15–20% discount converts monthly cash into a lump that funds acquisition: 100 annuals at $400 bring $40,000 forward versus $3,900 monthly drip. The discount costs less than the CAC the cash replaces. Price annuals from box-pricing math (cost divided by one-minus-margin) then discount, never the reverse.

Forecast with cohorts, not averages

Blended churn hides truth: month-1 churn of 15% settling to 3% by month 6 means new cohorts behave nothing like mature ones. Forecast revenue as starting MRR plus new-cohort ramps minus cohort-decay curves. The revenue-forecast calculator compounds current MRR at measured net growth; validate quarterly against actual cohort retention.

Platform Playbooks: Amazon, Shopify, Etsy & eBay

Fee structures differ by channel — here is how to adapt one base price per marketplace without losing margin.

Amazon

Subscribe & Save takes 5–15% discounts plus FBA per-shipment economics. Model the discount tiers against retention lift — 15% off for 5+ subscriptions only pays when cohort length covers the haircut.

Shopify

Native subscriptions plus apps (Recharge, Loop) with dunning and pause flows. Failed-payment recovery plus skip-a-month options cut involuntary churn 2–4 points — the cheapest LTV lever available.

Etsy

Pattern and off-Etsy subscriber lists for consumables (coffee, refills, craft kits). Small bases mean every churned subscriber visibly moves MRR — track retention per 100-sub cohort, not blended.

eBay

Scheduled repeat deliveries for consumables with feedback-driven retention. Ratings on subscription-like repeat orders compound — protect on-time and fill-rate metrics like churn drivers.

Glossary: Pricing Terms Explained

MRR
Monthly recurring revenue: active subscribers times average revenue per subscriber.
ARR
Annualized run-rate: MRR times 12 — a snapshot, not booked revenue.
Churn
Share of subscribers lost per period: lost divided by starting base.
LTV
Lifetime value: ARPU times gross margin divided by churn rate.
CAC
Customer acquisition cost: sales and marketing divided by new subscribers.
LTV:CAC
Unit-economics ratio; above 3 sustainable, above 5 possibly under-spending.
Dunning
Failed-payment retry plus email sequence recovering involuntary churn.
Cohort
Subscribers acquired together, tracked as one retention curve over time.

Common Pricing Mistakes & Pro Tips

Mistakes that kill margin

  • Pricing boxes on product cost while $7–10 shipping eats the margin.
  • No dunning — 8–12% of renewals fail and never come back.
  • Discounting annuals from gut instead of margin math, then losing on every prepay.
  • Blended churn hiding month-1 bleeding behind mature-cohort stability.
  • Growing past LTV:CAC of 2 with paid ads — scaling losses, not growth.
  • No pause/skip option — rigid plans convert pauses into cancellations.

Pro tips to grow profit

  • Recover failed renewals with code-timed retries plus 3-email dunning.
  • Offer skip-a-month before cancel — pauses retain 3× better.
  • Price annuals from margin math, then discount 15–20% for cash up front.
  • Track cohorts separately; fix month-1 onboarding first.
  • Hold LTV:CAC above 3 with payback under 12 months.
  • Renegotiate box shipping yearly — it is the biggest margin lever.

Who Should Use This Calculator?

  • ▸ New sellers pricing a first subscription box with margin intact
  • ▸ Shopify stores adding tiers and annual prepay from LTV math
  • ▸ Coffee and consumable brands modeling churn vs CAC payback
  • ▸ Beauty boxes balancing curation cost against ship cost
  • ▸ Pet and baby verticals forecasting cohort revenue realistically
  • ▸ Operators cutting involuntary churn with dunning flows
  • ▸ Membership sellers setting prices from unit economics
  • ▸ Agencies producing client subscription plans with copy-ready breakdowns

Related E-commerce Calculators

Keep optimizing — every tool below links directly into this pricing workflow.

Frequently Asked Questions (15)

Long-tail answers: each question targets a real Google search about subscription ltv calculator — click to expand.

What is the subscription ltv and how does it work?
The subscription ltv computes your subscription economics from subscriber, price and cost inputs. Enter your numbers once and every result updates instantly — MRR, profit, retention and growth. It uses LTV = ARPU × Margin% ÷ Churn% so the number you see reflects recurring reality, not one-time math.
How do I calculate subscription ltv?
To calculate subscription ltv, enter your subscriber counts, prices, per-subscriber costs, churn and acquisition spend where they apply. The calculator applies LTV = ARPU × Margin% ÷ Churn% and annualizes where relevant. Use measured cohort retention — not blended guesses — and re-run whenever pricing or churn shifts.
What is a good result for subscription ltv?
A healthy subscription ltv shows monthly churn under 5%, LTV:CAC above 3 with payback inside 12 months, and per-box margins above 40%. Early-stage boxes near 10% churn are normal while onboarding is fixed — fatal only when unmodeled and unaddressed.
What inputs does the subscription ltv need?
You need active subscribers, ARPU or box price, per-subscriber COGS and shipping, churn rate, and marketing spend for CAC lines. Defaults mirror typical subscription ltv economics so first-time users get a sane answer in seconds, then refine with their own cohort data.
How accurate is this subscription ltv?
Math is exact for the inputs you give; accuracy depends on honest inputs. Pull cohort retention (not blended churn), true per-box ship invoices, and fully-loaded CAC including creative and trials. Re-check monthly for growth-stage offers, quarterly once stable.
Should beginners use the subscription ltv?
Yes — beginners benefit most, because first-time box sellers routinely price on product cost while $7–10 shipping erases margin. Run the calculator before launch: if per-box margin is under 30% at a competitive price, renegotiate ship, rebalance curation, or raise price. Sixty seconds prevents a subscriber-scale loss.
How does churn change lifetime value?
LTV equals ARPU times margin divided by churn — halving churn from 10% to 5% doubles LTV with zero new customers. The calculator shows the curve live: cut involuntary churn (dunning, pauses) first since it converts without persuasion or discounts.
What LTV:CAC should I target?
Above 3 to grow sustainably with payback inside 12 months; above 5 usually means under-spending on proven acquisition. Below 2 the business scales losses — fix onboarding and pricing before raising budgets.
How do failed renewals affect subscription ltv?
8–12% of card-on-file renewals fail; code-timed retries plus dunning recover 20–40% within two weeks. Each recovered subscriber at 70%+ margin dwarfs retry cost — model fails, recovery and margin to size the dunning investment.
Monthly or annual prepay — which wins?
Annuals at 15–20% discount trade margin for cash up front that funds acquisition without debt. Compare discounted annual LTV against monthly LTV times expected months — annuals usually win when month-1 churn exceeds 10%.
Can I model tiers with this?
Yes — run each tier separately with its own ARPU, COGS and churn, then blend by mix. Good/better/best tiers segment willingness to pay; the calculator shows which tier carries the growth so discounts target precisely.
How often should I re-run the subscription ltv?
Monthly while growing, quarterly once stable, and immediately when churn moves 1+ point, pricing changes, or acquisition mix shifts. Store a dated snapshot each run with the copy button so cohort changes stay visible.
Does this handle pauses and skips?
Yes — model pauses as retained subscribers with zero that-month revenue rather than churned losses. Skip-a-month options retain ~3× better than cancellations; the retention math should credit every saved subscriber.
What is the biggest mistake with subscription ltv?
Pricing boxes on product cost while shipping erases margin, then scaling ads past LTV:CAC of 2. The second mistake is zero dunning — letting 1 in 10 renewals fail permanently.
How do I forecast subscriber revenue?
Start from current MRR, add new-cohort ramps, subtract cohort-decay curves — never straight-line averages. The forecast calculator compounds net growth monthly; validate quarterly against actual cohort retention and reset assumptions.

Resources & Authoritative References

Further reading

Authoritative sources

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Last updated: October 2026 · Free forever · No sign-up · Part of E-commerce Calculators at Atlascalcs.com